If the US federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations for at least 1 day between Jan 1, 2027 and Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. A shutdown is defined as the government's orderly suspension of agency work that is not legally excepted, typically accompanied by furloughing the employees who perform that work, when funding is unavailable. Shutdown status is recorded at 10:00 AM ET each day. Partial shutdowns are included. A shutdown lasting "at least X days" requires the shutdown to be in effect at 10:00 AM ET on X+1 consecutive days. For example, if a shutdown is first in effect at 10:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026, and remains in effect at 10:00 AM ET on October 2, 2026, the shutdown has lasted at least 1 day. Examples that would count toward the shutdown day count: OMB releases a formal directive that orders heads of the affected agencies to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown," which is in effect as of 10:00 AM ET on the relevant date OPM posts a current operating status that indicates that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency" During an ongoing shutdown, OPM posts a status referencing an Executive Order excusing employees for a holiday, but does not indicate the government has resumed normal operations Examples that would NOT count toward the shutdown day count: A technical lapse in appropriations occurs, but OMB directs agencies to continue standard operations Government closures or operating status changes resulting exclusively from Federal holidays, inclement weather, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations A shutdown that began before Jan 1, 2027 counts for the days it is in effect from Jan 1, 2027.