Prediction Markets

2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner

International Criminal Court

No

Aaja Chemnitz

No

Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 9, 2026?

Below 38.1%

38.1%

Will the SAVE Act become law?

Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?

Anna Kelly

Scott Jennings

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

Before Jul 1, 2027

Before Dec 1, 2027

Trump's approval rating on Oct 9, 2026?

37.6 to 37.8

Below 37.6

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11)

Above 22

Above 25

Donald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death)

Before January 20, 2029

Before 2028

Trump Truth Social posts this week? (10/4-10/10)

100-119

120-139

How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (10/4-10/10)

At least 4

At least 5

Who will be the top ActBlue fundraiser on Oct 9, 2026?

Abdul El-Sayed

Angie Nixon

Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11)

Above 5

Above 6

Will Donald Trump attend UFC 333?

Will Mitch McConnell resign his office before the midterms?

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense?

Before Apr 1, 2027

Before Oct 1, 2027

How many days will Trump be photographed this week? (10/5-10/11)

7

6

Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?

Doug Collins

Steve Witkoff

Kimberly Guilfoyle out as US Ambassador to Greece?

Before Jan 1, 2027

Before Dec 1, 2026

Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?

Cassidy Hutchinson

John Brennan

Will marijuana be rescheduled?

Before Jan 1, 2028

Before Jul 1, 2027

US-Iran nuclear deal?

Before Jan 20, 2029

Before Jan 1, 2028

How many states will Trump visit in Oct 2026?

At least 21

At least 23

Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?

Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?

Who will Barack Obama rally with?

James Talarico

Josh Turek

Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026?

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/5 - 10/11)

Above 180

Above 200

Which leaders will leave office in 2026?

Christopher Luxon

Benjamin Netanyahu

How many times will Trump visit Mar-a-Lago in Oct 2026?

2

1

Will the SAVE America Act become law?

Before Jan 1, 2027

Before Dec 1, 2026

Will Donald Trump visit Iran?

How low will Trump's approval rating get before 2027?

Below 36%

Below 35%

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