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$129
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If the Supreme Court, in St. Mary Catholic Parish v. Roy, rules either that establishing a lack of general applicability under Employment Division v. Smith does not require unfettered discretion or categorical exemptions for identical secular conduct, or that Carson v. Makin can displace Smith without an explicit exclusion of religious people or institutions, then the market resolves to Yes. The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled, in St. Mary Catholic Parish v. Roy, either that proving a lack of general applicability under Employment Division v. Smith does not require unfettered discretion or categorical exemptions for identical secular conduct, or that Carson v. Makin may displace Smith even when the government has not explicitly excluded religious people or institutions, after Issuance and before August 1, 2028. A merits ruling establishing either proposition is sufficient, even if the Court does not reach the other question. The market resolves to No if the Court establishes neither proposition, or if the case is dismissed, settled, DIG’d, or remanded without a merits ruling establishing either proposition.

If the Supreme Court, in St. Mary Catholic Parish v. Roy, rules either that establishing a lack of general applicability under Employment Division v. Smith does not require unfettered discretion or categorical exemptions for identical secular conduct, or that Carson v. Makin can displace Smith without an explicit exclusion of religious people or institutions, then the market resolves to Yes. The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled, in St. Mary Catholic Parish v. Roy, either that proving a lack of general applicability under Employment Division v. Smith does not require unfettered discretion or categorical exemptions for identical secular conduct, or that Carson v. Makin may displace Smith even when the government has not explicitly excluded religious people or institutions, after Issuance and before August 1, 2028. A merits ruling establishing either proposition is sufficient, even if the Court does not reach the other question. The market resolves to No if the Court establishes neither proposition, or if the case is dismissed, settled, DIG’d, or remanded without a merits ruling establishing either proposition.

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Key stats

Expiry
Aug 1, 2028(715 days)
Interest
$428.08
Vol (24H)
$200.00→ 0.00%
Total
$1.2K
Timeline & rules

Timeline & payout

This market will close and expire when an outcome occurs. Otherwise, it closes by Aug 1, 2028, 2:00 PM GMT+0.

Trading prohibitions

The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
  • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
  • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
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FAQs

A prediction market lets you trade contracts on future events. Each pays $1 if the event happens, $0 if not. The price reflects the market’s odds. For example, $0.65 means a 65% chance. Buy “Yes” if you think it will happen, “No” if not. If you’re right, you earn $1 minus what you paid (minus fees).

When you buy “Yes”, you're betting the event will happen. If it does, you earn $1 per contract. When you buy “No”, you're betting the event will not happen. If it doesn't, you earn $1 per contract.

You can trade regulated “Yes/No” contracts on outcomes in crypto, economics, politics, sports, entertainment, technology, science, and more. New markets are added regularly, all with clear rules and settlement policies based on the result.

You need a Coinbase account and must complete onboarding to Coinbase Financial Markets (CFM), our regulated derivatives entity. This includes identity verification and basic income/net worth details. Once approved, you can fund your account and start trading.

You can use the cash (USD and USDC) in your main Coinbase account to trade. Cash held for positions will be moved to your derivatives account. When you close positions, freed up funds will be transferred back to your main Coinbase account.

Each market has rules that explain how its outcome is decided. When the event happens, an independent, regulated exchange determines the result using a stated “source of truth,” such as official data, market prices, or trusted news. Settlement is based only on that source, which is listed in the contract before you trade.

Settlement is when a market ends and contracts are converted to their final value. You receive $1 if the event happened and $0 if it did not. Payouts are then made to traders.

When the event result is confirmed, each correct contract you hold settles at $1, and each incorrect contract settles at $0. Your total payout is $1 × number of winning contracts, and your profit is that payout minus what you originally paid (minus any fees).



For example, say you buy 10 “Yes” contracts at $0.40 each, this costs you $4.00. If the event happens, each contract pays you $1.00. The payout credited to you would be 10 * $1.00 = $10.00. However, your profit would be $10.00 - $4.00 = $6.00 (minus fees).

Payouts happen after settlement, but settlement transfers may be delayed on U.S. bank holidays, weekends, or outside banking hours. Delays can also occur while an independent third party confirms the result. You can find more details on the contract pages.

When you trade, a fee is applied. This covers costs for operating the market and the broker fee. Fees vary by market and are shown in the trade preview before you place your order.

You can trade prediction markets 24/7, except during the weekly maintenance window from Thursday 3:00–5:00 am ET, when trading is paused.

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Legal
Prediction markets are offered by Coinbase Financial Markets, a registered futures commission merchant with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and a Member of the National Futures Association. Trading prediction contracts involve substantial risk and may result in the loss of your entire investment. Contracts pay out only if the specified event occurs. Trade only if you understand the product and believe it is appropriate for your financial situation and objectives.Certain content has been prepared by third parties not affiliated with Coinbase Financial Markets or any of its affiliates and Coinbase is not responsible for such content. Coinbase is not liable for any errors or delays in content, or for any actions taken in reliance on any content. Information is provided for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell a particular digital asset or to employ a particular investment strategy. Coinbase makes no representation on the accuracy, suitability, or validity of any information provided or for a particular asset. Prices shown are for illustrative purposes only. Actual cryptocurrency prices and associated stats may vary. Data presented may reflect assets traded on Coinbase’s exchange and select other cryptocurrency exchanges. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.