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If federal legislation requiring serious AI-incident reporting has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. A qualifying federal law must require external reporting of serious incidents or dangerous near misses involving AI models or systems. This includes events causing or threatening serious physical, economic, environmental, privacy, or security harm, as well as significant loss of control or compromise of model security. The law's reporting trigger or definitions must identify serious, critical, material, significant, or catastrophic incidents, or set a harm or risk threshold excluding routine low-impact events. A broader reporting duty qualifies if it includes such a defined category. Confidential reports to an authority or designated external recipient and public disclosure both qualify. Internal reporting alone, voluntary programs, routine errors, and capability or risk assessments without an incident or dangerous near miss do not qualify. A general cybersecurity reporting law without an AI-specific reporting duty does not qualify. A later effective date does not delay qualification. An example of this is the FRONTIER Act (H.R. 9925).

If federal legislation requiring serious AI-incident reporting has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. A qualifying federal law must require external reporting of serious incidents or dangerous near misses involving AI models or systems. This includes events causing or threatening serious physical, economic, environmental, privacy, or security harm, as well as significant loss of control or compromise of model security. The law's reporting trigger or definitions must identify serious, critical, material, significant, or catastrophic incidents, or set a harm or risk threshold excluding routine low-impact events. A broader reporting duty qualifies if it includes such a defined category. Confidential reports to an authority or designated external recipient and public disclosure both qualify. Internal reporting alone, voluntary programs, routine errors, and capability or risk assessments without an incident or dangerous near miss do not qualify. A general cybersecurity reporting law without an AI-specific reporting duty does not qualify. A later effective date does not delay qualification. An example of this is the FRONTIER Act (H.R. 9925).

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Key stats

Expiry
Jan 1, 2028(412 days)
Interest
$2,553.58
Total
$2.1K

Details

Timeline & rules

Timeline & payout

This market will close and expire when an outcome occurs. Otherwise, it closes by Jan 1, 2028, 4:59 AM GMT+0.

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The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
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Prediction markets are offered by Coinbase Financial Markets, a registered futures commission merchant with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and a Member of the National Futures Association. Trading prediction contracts involve substantial risk and may result in the loss of your entire investment. Contracts pay out only if the specified event occurs. Trade only if you understand the product and believe it is appropriate for your financial situation and objectives.Certain content has been prepared by third parties not affiliated with Coinbase Financial Markets or any of its affiliates and Coinbase is not responsible for such content. Coinbase is not liable for any errors or delays in content, or for any actions taken in reliance on any content. Information is provided for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell a particular digital asset or to employ a particular investment strategy. Coinbase makes no representation on the accuracy, suitability, or validity of any information provided or for a particular asset. Prices shown are for illustrative purposes only. Actual cryptocurrency prices and associated stats may vary. Data presented may reflect assets traded on Coinbase’s exchange and select other cryptocurrency exchanges. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.