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If Sam Altman holds shares of OpenAI carrying more votes per share than the shares sold to the public immediately following OpenAI's IPO, then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved SEC filings take priority, followed by the other sources listed in the full rules. Ownership and votes per share are measured at the initial closing of OpenAI's IPO. Payout Criteria Sam Altman holds shares with more votes per share than those sold to the public. Beneficial ownership, including through trusts or other entities, counts. Votes are compared on a common-share-equivalent basis, including convertible shares and Up-C structures. Any qualifying holding counts, regardless of size. Doesn't count for payout Announcements, unexercised options, unsettled RSUs, or shares acquired only after that closing. Veto or special board-election rights without higher votes per share. Direct listings, SPAC transactions, or offerings outside SEC registration. Expiration and no IPO Latest expiration: 10:00 AM ET on the earlier of 14 days after IPO shares first trade or one year after issuance. The market may close early if the payout criterion is met. Resolves No if no qualifying IPO closes by expiration, or no source reports a qualifying holding by then. Please see the full rules for more details. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the OpenAI. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

If Sam Altman holds shares of OpenAI carrying more votes per share than the shares sold to the public immediately following OpenAI's IPO, then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved SEC filings take priority, followed by the other sources listed in the full rules. Ownership and votes per share are measured at the initial closing of OpenAI's IPO. Payout Criteria Sam Altman holds shares with more votes per share than those sold to the public. Beneficial ownership, including through trusts or other entities, counts. Votes are compared on a common-share-equivalent basis, including convertible shares and Up-C structures. Any qualifying holding counts, regardless of size. Doesn't count for payout Announcements, unexercised options, unsettled RSUs, or shares acquired only after that closing. Veto or special board-election rights without higher votes per share. Direct listings, SPAC transactions, or offerings outside SEC registration. Expiration and no IPO Latest expiration: 10:00 AM ET on the earlier of 14 days after IPO shares first trade or one year after issuance. The market may close early if the payout criterion is met. Resolves No if no qualifying IPO closes by expiration, or no source reports a qualifying holding by then. Please see the full rules for more details. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the OpenAI. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

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Key stats

Expiry
Jan 1, 2028(426 days)
Interest
$2,216.78
Total
$3.7K
Timeline & rules

Timeline & payout

This market will close and expire when an outcome occurs. Otherwise, it closes by Jan 1, 2028, 3:00 PM GMT+0.

Trading prohibitions

The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
  • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
  • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
  • The natural person identified in the market.
  • Officers, directors, employees, and contractors of the specified company and of its subsidiaries and affiliates
  • Pre-IPO stockholders of the specified company, and the officers, partners, and employees of any such stockholder that is an entity, who have access to material nonpublic information relating to the specified company’s capital structure or IPO
  • Underwriters, financial advisors, legal counsel, independent auditors, financial printers, transfer agents, and exchange listing staff engaged in connection with the specified company’s IPO, and their employees with access to material nonpublic information relating to the specified company’s capital structure or IPO
  • Employees of the Source Agencies, including SEC staff, with access to material nonpublic information relating to the Underlying
  • Any person who otherwise has the ability to influence, or has advance knowledge of, the specified company’s capital structure, the votes per share of any class or series of the specified company’s shares, or the shares held by the natural person identified in the market immediately following the specified company’s IPO
  • The immediate family members and members of the same household of any person described above
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FAQs

A prediction market lets you trade contracts on future events. Each pays $1 if the event happens, $0 if not. The price reflects the market’s odds. For example, $0.65 means a 65% chance. Buy “Yes” if you think it will happen, “No” if not. If you’re right, you earn $1 minus what you paid (minus fees).

When you buy “Yes”, you're betting the event will happen. If it does, you earn $1 per contract. When you buy “No”, you're betting the event will not happen. If it doesn't, you earn $1 per contract.

You can trade regulated “Yes/No” contracts on outcomes in crypto, economics, politics, sports, entertainment, technology, science, and more. New markets are added regularly, all with clear rules and settlement policies based on the result.

You need a Coinbase account and must complete onboarding to Coinbase Financial Markets (CFM), our regulated derivatives entity. This includes identity verification and basic income/net worth details. Once approved, you can fund your account and start trading.

You can use the cash (USD and USDC) in your main Coinbase account to trade. Cash held for positions will be moved to your derivatives account. When you close positions, freed up funds will be transferred back to your main Coinbase account.

Each market has rules that explain how its outcome is decided. When the event happens, an independent, regulated exchange determines the result using a stated “source of truth,” such as official data, market prices, or trusted news. Settlement is based only on that source, which is listed in the contract before you trade.

Settlement is when a market ends and contracts are converted to their final value. You receive $1 if the event happened and $0 if it did not. Payouts are then made to traders.

When the event result is confirmed, each correct contract you hold settles at $1, and each incorrect contract settles at $0. Your total payout is $1 × number of winning contracts, and your profit is that payout minus what you originally paid (minus any fees).



For example, say you buy 10 “Yes” contracts at $0.40 each, this costs you $4.00. If the event happens, each contract pays you $1.00. The payout credited to you would be 10 * $1.00 = $10.00. However, your profit would be $10.00 - $4.00 = $6.00 (minus fees).

Payouts happen after settlement, but settlement transfers may be delayed on U.S. bank holidays, weekends, or outside banking hours. Delays can also occur while an independent third party confirms the result. You can find more details on the contract pages.

When you trade, a fee is applied. This covers costs for operating the market and the broker fee. Fees vary by market and are shown in the trade preview before you place your order.

You can trade prediction markets 24/7, except during the weekly maintenance window from Thursday 3:00–5:00 am ET, when trading is paused.

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Legal
Prediction markets are offered by Coinbase Financial Markets, a registered futures commission merchant with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and a Member of the National Futures Association. Trading prediction contracts involve substantial risk and may result in the loss of your entire investment. Contracts pay out only if the specified event occurs. Trade only if you understand the product and believe it is appropriate for your financial situation and objectives.Certain content has been prepared by third parties not affiliated with Coinbase Financial Markets or any of its affiliates and Coinbase is not responsible for such content. Coinbase is not liable for any errors or delays in content, or for any actions taken in reliance on any content. Information is provided for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell a particular digital asset or to employ a particular investment strategy. Coinbase makes no representation on the accuracy, suitability, or validity of any information provided or for a particular asset. Prices shown are for illustrative purposes only. Actual cryptocurrency prices and associated stats may vary. Data presented may reflect assets traded on Coinbase’s exchange and select other cryptocurrency exchanges. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.