If the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a final merits disposition that the preliminary injunction no longer bars White House ballroom construction in National Park Service, et al. v. National Trust for Historic Preservation in the United States, No. 26A203, including any merits docket arising from the same dispute before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. The ruling must: Be issued by the U.S. Supreme Court in National Park Service, et al. v. National Trust for Historic Preservation in the United States, No. 26A203, including any merits docket arising from the same dispute Address the matter described by the specified judgment Be issued through a written order, opinion, judgment, or decision The following do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion: Oral rulings from the bench unless reduced to a written order Tentative rulings that are not made final Draft opinions that leak but are not officially issued Settlements or voluntary dismissals Administrative or scheduling orders Orders to show cause Minute orders that do not address the substantive issue in the specified judgment For clarity: If the case is dismissed for lack of jurisdiction, that counts as a ruling only if the judgment refers to jurisdiction Sua sponte rulings count if they match the specified judgment Per curiam opinions and summary orders count as rulings If multiple judges issue separate opinions, the majority or plurality opinion controls An emergency or administrative stay does not qualify because the specified judgment requires a final merits disposition.