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If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party is at least 1 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes. A seat counts only if the relevant election authority records no political party designation for the winning candidate’s candidacy in the November 3, 2026 general election: Independent, Nonpartisan, No Party Preference, No Party Affiliation, Unaffiliated, Unenrolled, Undeclared, nomination by petition without a party designation, a declared write-in candidacy so recorded, or an equivalent. A candidate identified with a political party does not count, including a party whose registered name contains “Independent” such as the Independent Party of Oregon, and a candidate appearing on one ballot line without a designation and another with one. Caucus affiliation, endorsements and later party changes do not affect the count. All 35 U.S. Senate contests on the November 3, 2026 ballot count, including the Florida and Ohio special elections. No seat counts twice. Seats are counted from Designated Media Source calls as they stand at the Expiration time, not from Senate composition on any later date; the eight rank equally. A seat is counted when at least four have declared its winner with no contradictory declaration then outstanding; withdrawn or superseded declarations are disregarded. A seat not counted under that four-of-eight test is attributed to the candidate the state certifies as elected. A runoff seat is counted when that contest is called. Designated Media Source declarations. For United States based elections, this Contract may be resolved on an accelerated basis if (A) at least four (4) of the eight (8) Designated Media Sources have declared a winning candidate, party, or option, and (B) none of the Designated Media Sources have issued a contradictory declaration. “Designated Media Sources” are: The New York Times (NYT), The Associated Press (AP), Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), CNN, Fox News, NBC News, CBS News, and ABC News. Should one of the Designated Media Sources cease to provide independent election calls, it may be replaced at the sole discretion of the Exchange. For the purposes of this clause, a source declares a winning candidate, party, or option when it makes either (i) a formal projection of victory by its centralized decision desk, or (ii) an unambiguous statement in a news article that the candidate/party/option has won. For the network sources (Fox, NBC, CBS, ABC), a declaration from a local affiliate may represent the parent network; however, a declaration from the national desk shall always supersede any affiliate’s call. In all instances, a parent network and all of its affiliates shall collectively constitute a single source for the purpose of this clause.

If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party is at least 1 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes. A seat counts only if the relevant election authority records no political party designation for the winning candidate’s candidacy in the November 3, 2026 general election: Independent, Nonpartisan, No Party Preference, No Party Affiliation, Unaffiliated, Unenrolled, Undeclared, nomination by petition without a party designation, a declared write-in candidacy so recorded, or an equivalent. A candidate identified with a political party does not count, including a party whose registered name contains “Independent” such as the Independent Party of Oregon, and a candidate appearing on one ballot line without a designation and another with one. Caucus affiliation, endorsements and later party changes do not affect the count. All 35 U.S. Senate contests on the November 3, 2026 ballot count, including the Florida and Ohio special elections. No seat counts twice. Seats are counted from Designated Media Source calls as they stand at the Expiration time, not from Senate composition on any later date; the eight rank equally. A seat is counted when at least four have declared its winner with no contradictory declaration then outstanding; withdrawn or superseded declarations are disregarded. A seat not counted under that four-of-eight test is attributed to the candidate the state certifies as elected. A runoff seat is counted when that contest is called. Designated Media Source declarations. For United States based elections, this Contract may be resolved on an accelerated basis if (A) at least four (4) of the eight (8) Designated Media Sources have declared a winning candidate, party, or option, and (B) none of the Designated Media Sources have issued a contradictory declaration. “Designated Media Sources” are: The New York Times (NYT), The Associated Press (AP), Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), CNN, Fox News, NBC News, CBS News, and ABC News. Should one of the Designated Media Sources cease to provide independent election calls, it may be replaced at the sole discretion of the Exchange. For the purposes of this clause, a source declares a winning candidate, party, or option when it makes either (i) a formal projection of victory by its centralized decision desk, or (ii) an unambiguous statement in a news article that the candidate/party/option has won. For the network sources (Fox, NBC, CBS, ABC), a declaration from a local affiliate may represent the parent network; however, a declaration from the national desk shall always supersede any affiliate’s call. In all instances, a parent network and all of its affiliates shall collectively constitute a single source for the purpose of this clause.

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Key stats

Expiry
Jan 3, 2027(98 days)
Interest
$19,938.08
Vol (24H)
$2,712.62↘ 48.05%
Total
$51K

Details

Timeline & rules

Timeline & payout

This market will close and expire when an outcome occurs. Otherwise, it closes by Jan 3, 2027, 1:59 PM GMT+0.

Trading prohibitions

The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
  • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
  • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
  • Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event.
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Prediction markets are offered by Coinbase Financial Markets, a registered futures commission merchant with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and a Member of the National Futures Association. Trading prediction contracts involve substantial risk and may result in the loss of your entire investment. Contracts pay out only if the specified event occurs. Trade only if you understand the product and believe it is appropriate for your financial situation and objectives.Certain content has been prepared by third parties not affiliated with Coinbase Financial Markets or any of its affiliates and Coinbase is not responsible for such content. Coinbase is not liable for any errors or delays in content, or for any actions taken in reliance on any content. Information is provided for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell a particular digital asset or to employ a particular investment strategy. Coinbase makes no representation on the accuracy, suitability, or validity of any information provided or for a particular asset. Prices shown are for illustrative purposes only. Actual cryptocurrency prices and associated stats may vary. Data presented may reflect assets traded on Coinbase’s exchange and select other cryptocurrency exchanges. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.