If the U.S. Court of Appeals for the First Circuit affirms in its entirety the district court's October 20, 2025 final judgment for Harvard in President and Fellows of Harvard College v. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, No. 25-2230 (1st Cir.) before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. A qualifying ruling must be a written order, opinion, judgment or decision of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the First Circuit disposing of the government's appeal in President and Fellows of Harvard College v. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, No. 25-2230 (1st Cir.). The companion appeal No. 25-2231 (American Association of University Professors, et al. v. U.S. Department of Justice, et al.), arising from the related district court case No. 1:25-cv-10910 (D. Mass.) and briefed on the same schedule, counts only where the same disposition also disposes of No. 25-2230. "In its entirety" means the court affirms the judgment and reverses, vacates, modifies or remands no part of it. These resolve to NO: A disposition affirming in part and reversing, vacating, modifying or remanding in part, however small the part, including a partial ruling that some or all of Harvard's claims belong exclusively in the Court of Federal Claims under the Tucker Act Reversal or vacatur of the whole judgment Dismissal of the appeal for lack of jurisdiction or on any other ground Dismissal of the appeal on mootness grounds, including a Munsingwear vacatur The following do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion: Oral rulings from the bench unless reduced to a written order Tentative rulings that are not made final Draft opinions that leak but are not officially issued Settlements or voluntary dismissals Administrative or scheduling orders Orders to show cause Minute orders that do not address the substantive issue in the specified judgment A qualifying ruling settles the market when issued; a later grant of rehearing, rehearing en banc or Supreme Court review does NOT unwind it.