Skip to contentSkip to site index
Coinbase Logo
Sign in
Sign up
Make your prediction
Buy inPayout
$100
$172
Buy prediction

About

If Jon Ossoff for Senate's total receipts is above $25 million from July 1 through September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market resolves based on the official filing data released by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Only the first official or non-preliminary release of the relevant statistic will be used to resolve the market, and subsequent revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution. Outcome verified by FEC

If Jon Ossoff for Senate's total receipts is above $25 million from July 1 through September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market resolves based on the official filing data released by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Only the first official or non-preliminary release of the relevant statistic will be used to resolve the market, and subsequent revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution. Outcome verified by FEC

No volume detected, be the first!

Key stats

Expiry
Oct 16, 2026(85 days)
Interest
$22,699.42
Vol (24H)
$11,635.70↗ 1.24%
Total
$23K

Details

Timeline & rules

Timeline & payout

This market will close and expire when an outcome occurs. Otherwise, it closes by Oct 16, 2026, 1:59 PM GMT+0.

Trading prohibitions

The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
  • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
  • <meta charset="utf-8"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;text-align: center;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;" id="docs-internal-guid-509204b7-7fff-9ea8-b4fa-c09a1645ebac"><span style="font-size:13.999999999999998pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">POLITICALSTAT</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;text-align: justify;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">Scope:</span><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;"> These rules shall apply to this contract.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;text-align: justify;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">Underlying:</span><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;"> The Underlying for this Contract is the &lt;value&gt; of &lt;political stat&gt; &lt;time period&gt;. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;text-align: justify;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">Source Agency:</span><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;"> The Source Agencies are, in hierarchical order, </span><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">the statistical agency or entity responsible for the calculation and/or release of &lt;political stat&gt; (e.g. polling agencies, Federal Election Commission, or official certifying authorities)</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;text-align: justify;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">Type:</span><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;"> The type of Contract is an Event Contract.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;text-align: justify;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">Issuance:</span><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;"> After the initial Contract, Contract iterations will be listed on an as-needed basis at the discretion of the Exchange and corresponding to the risk management needs of Members.&nbsp;</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;text-align: justify;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">&lt;political stat&gt;: </span><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">&lt;political stat&gt; refers to a measurable political metric or indicator as specified by the Exchange. This may include (but is not limited to):</span></p><ul style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;padding-inline-start:48px;"><li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type:disc;font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;" aria-level="1"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;text-align: justify;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;" role="presentation"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">Approval ratings (e.g., presidential approval, congressional approval)</span></p></li><li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type:disc;font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;" aria-level="1"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;text-align: justify;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;" role="presentation"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">Polling results or polling averages (e.g., candidate support percentages, generic ballot)</span></p></li><li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type:disc;font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;" aria-level="1"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;text-align: justify;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;" role="presentation"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">Vote shares or margins (e.g., percentage of votes received, margin of victory)</span></p></li><li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type:disc;font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;" aria-level="1"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;text-align: justify;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;" role="presentation"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">Seat counts or changes (e.g., number of House seats held by a party)</span></p></li><li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type:disc;font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;" aria-level="1"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;text-align: justify;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;" role="presentation"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">Turnout statistics (e.g., voter turnout percentage)</span></p></li><li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type:disc;font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;" aria-level="1"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;text-align: justify;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;" role="presentation"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">Legislative metrics (e.g., bills passed, confirmation votes)</span></p></li><li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type:disc;font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;" aria-level="1"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;text-align: justify;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;" role="presentation"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">Other quantifiable political indicators</span></p></li></ul><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;text-align: justify;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">&lt;political stat&gt; may be expressed as a percentage, index value, count, or other numerical or textual measure or statement as defined by the Exchange. Where applicable, &lt;political stat&gt; will be specified with sufficient detail to identify the exact metric, including the entity measured (e.g., &quot;President Biden's job approval rating&quot;), the measuring organization (e.g., &quot;Gallup&quot;), and any relevant qualifications (e.g., &quot;among registered voters,&quot; &quot;net approval&quot;).</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;text-align: justify;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">&lt;value&gt;: </span><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">&lt;value&gt; refers to a specific numeric level, percentage, index value or other quantitative or textual measure specified by the Exchange. Where applicable, &lt;value&gt; will be expressed in line with reporting conventions for &lt;political stat&gt; and may also be expressed to one or two decimal places, or in index points, with any applicable rounding specified by the Exchange. &lt;value&gt; may also take the form of &ldquo;None&rdquo;.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;text-align: justify;margin-top:-9pt;margin-bottom:-9pt;"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">&lt;above/below/exactly/at least/between&gt;</span><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">: &lt;above/below/exactly/at least/between&gt; refers to comparison operators. &quot;Above&quot; means greater than (&gt;), &quot;below&quot; means less than (&lt;), &quot;exactly&quot; means equal to (=) when rounded to two decimal places unless specified otherwise, &quot;at least&quot; means greater than or equal to (≥), and &quot;between&quot; means within an range including the lower bound and excluding the upper (≥ lower bound and &lt; upper bound), unless otherwise specified.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;text-align: justify;margin-top:-9pt;margin-bottom:-9pt;"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">&lt;time period&gt;: </span><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">&lt;time period&gt; refers to a specific range of time as specified by the Exchange, which may include a temporal operator that determines when the relevant statistic applies. This may be defined by exact dates (e.g., &quot;between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026&quot;), dates of publication, dates of distribution, dates of measurement,&nbsp; events (e.g. &ldquo;2028 Presidential Election), relative markers (e.g., &quot;before July 1, 2027&quot;), broader intervals (e.g., &quot;Q1 2027,&quot; &quot;January–March 2026&quot;), or by additional temporal operators. &ldquo;Before&quot; and &quot;after&quot; exclude the specified date unless stated otherwise. &lt;time period&gt; may also refer to &quot;Any&quot; or &quot;None&quot;, to multiple periods (even if non-consecutive), or to a singular and discrete date or time of publication, measurement, or evaluation (e.g. at exactly 10:00am on the 25th of January).</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;text-align: justify;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">Payout Criterion:</span><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;"> The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that &lt;political stat&gt; &lt;above/below/exactly/at least/between&gt; &lt;value&gt; &lt;time period&gt;.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;text-align: justify;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">Unless explicitly stated otherwise, only the first official or non-preliminary release or publication of the relevant &lt;political stat&gt; will be used to resolve the market, and subsequent revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution. Only official data released by the relevant Source Agency will be considered. If multiple figures are reported, the exact statistic defined in the Contract title governs.&nbsp;</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;text-align: justify;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">If no data is released by the Expiration Date, the market will resolve to the last fair price as solely determined by the Exchange.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;text-align: justify;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">Additional clarification(s):&nbsp;</span></p><ul style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;padding-inline-start:48px;"><li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type:disc;font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;" aria-level="1"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;text-align: justify;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;" role="presentation"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">For statistics expressed as percentages or non-integers, rounding follows the Source Agency's convention. If the Source Agency reports to one decimal place, the Contract resolves based on that precision. If the Source Agency reports only whole numbers, rounding to the nearest whole number applies.</span></p></li></ul><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;text-align: justify;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">Examples that would resolve the market to Yes:</span></p><ul style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;padding-inline-start:48px;"><li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type:disc;font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;" aria-level="1"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;text-align: justify;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;" role="presentation"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">Gallup releases a presidential approval rating of 42% for January 2026, and the Contract condition is &quot;above 40%.&quot;</span></p></li><li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type:disc;font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;" aria-level="1"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;text-align: justify;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;" role="presentation"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">The Federal Election Commission certifies that a candidate received 51.2% of the vote on Election Day, and the Contract asks &quot;Will the vote share be at least 51%?&quot;</span></p></li><li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type:disc;font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;" aria-level="1"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;text-align: justify;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;" role="presentation"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">FiveThirtyEight's polling average shows 48.5% on the specified date, and the Contract asks &quot;Will the polling average be between 45% and 50%?&quot;</span></p></li><li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type:disc;font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;" aria-level="1"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;text-align: justify;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;" role="presentation"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">The RCP average displayed at exactly 10am on &lt;date&gt; for candidate approval is 75%, and the Contract asks &ldquo;What will RCP average be at exactly 10:00 AM on &lt;date&gt;&rdquo;</span></p></li></ul><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;text-align: justify;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">Examples that would NOT resolve the market to Yes:</span></p><ul style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;padding-inline-start:48px;"><li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type:disc;font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;" aria-level="1"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;text-align: justify;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;" role="presentation"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">The approval rating is released before the Contract is issued.</span></p></li><li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type:disc;font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;" aria-level="1"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;text-align: justify;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;" role="presentation"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">A revised polling average falls within the range for a &quot;between&quot; Contract, but the first published value did not.</span></p></li><li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type:disc;font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;" aria-level="1"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;text-align: justify;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;" role="presentation"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">&nbsp;The Contract condition is &quot;exactly 50%,&quot; and the reported value is 50.1%.</span></p></li><li dir="ltr" style="list-style-type:disc;font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;" aria-level="1"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;text-align: justify;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;" role="presentation"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">An exit poll projects 52%, but the official certified result (which the market is targeting) is 49%.</span></p></li></ul><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;text-align: justify;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">Minimum Tick:</span><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;"> The Minimum Tick size for the Contract shall be $0.01.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-left: 0.05pt;margin-right: 1.9pt;text-indent: 0.10000000000000002pt;margin-top:1.3pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">Position Accountability Level:</span><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;"> The Position Accountability Level for the Contract shall be $25,000 per strike, per Member.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;text-align: justify;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">Last Trading Date:</span><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;"> The Last Trading Date and Time shall be one (1) minute prior to the expected release or capture of &lt;political stat&gt; &lt;time period&gt;. If no expected release date or time is available, trading shall close on the Expiration Date at the Expiration Time.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;text-align: justify;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">Settlement Date:</span><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;"> The Settlement Date of the Contract shall be no later than the day after the Expiration Date, unless the Market Outcome is under review pursuant to Rule 7.1.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;text-align: justify;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">Expiration Date:</span><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;"> The latest Expiration Date of the Contract shall be three months after the scheduled &lt;political stat&gt; release date for &lt;time period&gt;, or three months after the end of &lt;time period&gt; if that is not known. If an event described in the Payout Criterion occurs, expiration will be moved to an earlier date and time in accordance with Rule 7.2. Additionally, if no data is released, or the Source Agency announces that they will not release the Underlying data, expiration may be moved to an earlier date and time in accordance with Rule 7.2. In the case where data is expected to be delayed and later released, the Exchange may, in its sole discretion, move the Expiration Date in line with Rule 7.2.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;text-align: justify;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">Expiration time:</span><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;"> The Expiration time of the Contract shall be 10:00 AM ET.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;text-align: justify;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">Settlement Value:</span><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;"> The Settlement Value for this Contract is $1.00.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;text-align: justify;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">Expiration Value:</span><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;"> The Expiration Value is the value of the Underlying as documented by the Source Agency on the Expiration Date at the Expiration time.&nbsp;</span></p><br /><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;">Contingencies:</span><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;"> Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook. If an Expiration Value cannot be determined on the Expiration Date, Kalshi has the right to determine payouts pursuant to Rule 7.1 in the Rulebook.&nbsp;</span><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:'Times New Roman',serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;"><br /></span>
  • Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event
Trending markets

A new era of Coinbase has begun

The future of money is here. Be one of the first to get access and try new features the moment they’re available.

Create an account now
FAQs

A prediction market lets you trade contracts on future events. Each pays $1 if the event happens, $0 if not. The price reflects the market’s odds. For example, $0.65 means a 65% chance. Buy “Yes” if you think it will happen, “No” if not. If you’re right, you earn $1 minus what you paid (minus fees).

When you buy “Yes”, you're betting the event will happen. If it does, you earn $1 per contract. When you buy “No”, you're betting the event will not happen. If it doesn't, you earn $1 per contract.

You can trade regulated “Yes/No” contracts on outcomes in crypto, economics, politics, sports, entertainment, technology, science, and more. New markets are added regularly, all with clear rules and settlement policies based on the result.

You need a Coinbase account and must complete onboarding to Coinbase Financial Markets (CFM), our regulated derivatives entity. This includes identity verification and basic income/net worth details. Once approved, you can fund your account and start trading.

You can use the cash (USD and USDC) in your main Coinbase account to trade. Cash held for positions will be moved to your derivatives account. When you close positions, freed up funds will be transferred back to your main Coinbase account.

Each market has rules that explain how its outcome is decided. When the event happens, an independent, regulated exchange determines the result using a stated “source of truth,” such as official data, market prices, or trusted news. Settlement is based only on that source, which is listed in the contract before you trade.

Settlement is when a market ends and contracts are converted to their final value. You receive $1 if the event happened and $0 if it did not. Payouts are then made to traders.

When the event result is confirmed, each correct contract you hold settles at $1, and each incorrect contract settles at $0. Your total payout is $1 × number of winning contracts, and your profit is that payout minus what you originally paid (minus any fees).



For example, say you buy 10 “Yes” contracts at $0.40 each, this costs you $4.00. If the event happens, each contract pays you $1.00. The payout credited to you would be 10 * $1.00 = $10.00. However, your profit would be $10.00 - $4.00 = $6.00 (minus fees).

Payouts happen after settlement, but settlement transfers may be delayed on U.S. bank holidays, weekends, or outside banking hours. Delays can also occur while an independent third party confirms the result. You can find more details on the contract pages.

When you trade, a fee is applied. This covers costs for operating the market and the broker fee. Fees vary by market and are shown in the trade preview before you place your order.

You can trade prediction markets 24/7, except during the weekly maintenance window from Thursday 3:00–5:00 am ET, when trading is paused.

Discover more

Popular prediction markets

LeBron James Next Team
3M Open Winner
BTC price on Jul 24, 2026 at 12am EDT?
Edmonton Elks vs Saskatchewan Roughriders
Fed decision in Jul 2026?
BTC price on Jul 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
When Will LeBron's New Team be Announced
Highest temperature in LA on Jul 23, 2026?
Mineros de Zacatecas vs Santos Del Potosi
Edmonton Elks vs Saskatchewan Roughriders: Total Points

Popular derivatives

BTC PERP
GLD 29 JUL 26
SLVR 27 AUG 26
BTC 31 JUL 26
ETH PERP
OIL 19 AUG 26
XRP PERP
ZCASH PERP
SOL PERP
TECH PERP

Popular cryptocurrencies

BNB
TROLL
America250
SUI
Toncoin
OFFICIAL TRUMP
Dogecoin
Numeraire
National Trust Fund System
Tether

Popular cryptocurrency conversions

Tether to BNB
Pepe to Tether
Grm to Toncoin
Ethereum to XRP
Liquid Staked ETH to Ethereum
XRP to Bitcoin
USDC to Solana
Green Satoshi Token to STEPN
Bitcoin to Tether
Ethereum to Tether
SHIBA INU to Tether
USDC to Ethereum

Learn how to buy popular cryptocurrencies

How to buy United States Water Reserve
How to buy USOH
How to buy Global Oil Recovery Program
How to buy United States Oil Holdings
How to buy United States Water Reserve (USWR)
How to buy
How to buy World Liberty Financial
How to buy Aptos
How to buy America250
How to buy Uniswap

Popular price predictions

World Collective Oil Reserve
aBTC
Dogecoin
SUI
vechain
Hamster
Cosmos
XMax
Venice Token
PEPETO

Popular stocks

Patterson-UTI Energy
Tradr 2X Long Sndk Daily ETF
Blue Owl Capital
Kraft Heinz
Bank Bradesco
Gerdau
Intel
Bit Digital
Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X ETF
Valley National Bancorp

Explore other stocks

Lumen Technologies
Brookfield Infrastructure
Magnolia Oil & Gas
Simplify US Equity Income ETF
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF
JPMorgan U.S. Research Enhanced Large Cap ETF
JPMorgan Global Select Equity ETF
Liberty Latin America
Columbia EM Core ex-China ETF
Extra Space Storage
Legal
Prediction markets are offered by Coinbase Financial Markets, a registered futures commission merchant with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and a Member of the National Futures Association. Trading prediction contracts involve substantial risk and may result in the loss of your entire investment. Contracts pay out only if the specified event occurs. Trade only if you understand the product and believe it is appropriate for your financial situation and objectives.Certain content has been prepared by third parties not affiliated with Coinbase Financial Markets or any of its affiliates and Coinbase is not responsible for such content. Coinbase is not liable for any errors or delays in content, or for any actions taken in reliance on any content. Information is provided for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell a particular digital asset or to employ a particular investment strategy. Coinbase makes no representation on the accuracy, suitability, or validity of any information provided or for a particular asset. Prices shown are for illustrative purposes only. Actual cryptocurrency prices and associated stats may vary. Data presented may reflect assets traded on Coinbase’s exchange and select other cryptocurrency exchanges. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.