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If the FDA approves retatrutide (LY3437943) for marketing before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application The following constitute approvals that trigger the Payout Criterion: Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit) Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints) Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs The following do NOT constitute approvals: Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration FDA requests for additional information or studies Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval Approval only for export or for use outside the United States If the FDA issues a Complete Response Letter before Jul 1, 2027, the market will resolve to No unless the FDA subsequently approves retatrutide (LY3437943) after addressing the CRL concerns and before Jul 1, 2027. If the FDA convenes an Advisory Committee that votes against approval but the FDA approves retatrutide (LY3437943) anyway before Jul 1, 2027, the market will resolve to Yes. If retatrutide (LY3437943) receives accelerated approval that is later withdrawn before Jul 1, 2027, the market will resolve based on whether the initial accelerated approval occurred after Issuance (Yes), regardless of the subsequent withdrawal. If the drug sponsor withdraws the application before FDA action and before Jul 1, 2027, the market will resolve to No immediately. Outcome verified by Food and Drug Administration

If the FDA approves retatrutide (LY3437943) for marketing before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application The following constitute approvals that trigger the Payout Criterion: Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit) Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints) Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs The following do NOT constitute approvals: Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration FDA requests for additional information or studies Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval Approval only for export or for use outside the United States If the FDA issues a Complete Response Letter before Jul 1, 2027, the market will resolve to No unless the FDA subsequently approves retatrutide (LY3437943) after addressing the CRL concerns and before Jul 1, 2027. If the FDA convenes an Advisory Committee that votes against approval but the FDA approves retatrutide (LY3437943) anyway before Jul 1, 2027, the market will resolve to Yes. If retatrutide (LY3437943) receives accelerated approval that is later withdrawn before Jul 1, 2027, the market will resolve based on whether the initial accelerated approval occurred after Issuance (Yes), regardless of the subsequent withdrawal. If the drug sponsor withdraws the application before FDA action and before Jul 1, 2027, the market will resolve to No immediately. Outcome verified by Food and Drug Administration

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Key stats

Expiry
Jul 1, 2027(381 days)
Interest
$17,186.42
Vol (24H)
$226.26↗ 110.40%
Total
$24K

Details

Timeline & rules

Timeline & payout

This market will close and expire when an outcome occurs. Otherwise, it closes by Jul 1, 2027, 3:59 AM GMT+0.

Trading prohibitions

The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
  • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
  • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
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Prediction markets are offered by Coinbase Financial Markets, a registered futures commission merchant with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and a Member of the National Futures Association. Trading prediction contracts involve substantial risk and may result in the loss of your entire investment. Contracts pay out only if the specified event occurs. Trade only if you understand the product and believe it is appropriate for your financial situation and objectives.Certain content has been prepared by third parties not affiliated with Coinbase Financial Markets or any of its affiliates and Coinbase is not responsible for such content. Coinbase is not liable for any errors or delays in content, or for any actions taken in reliance on any content. Information is provided for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell a particular digital asset or to employ a particular investment strategy. Coinbase makes no representation on the accuracy, suitability, or validity of any information provided or for a particular asset. Prices shown are for illustrative purposes only. Actual cryptocurrency prices and associated stats may vary. Data presented may reflect assets traded on Coinbase’s exchange and select other cryptocurrency exchanges. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.