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Science and Technology Prediction Markets

Where will Waymo operate in 2026?
Sacramento, CA
Tokyo, Japan
$515,556 vol
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
Before Jan 20, 2029
Before 2028
$60,168,689 vol
Best AI at the end of 2026?
Claude
ChatGPT
Dec 31 @ 1:00 PM
Best AI in Sep 2026?
Claude
Gemini
$1,053,663 vol
Open Source market share on Sep 14th
Above 67.5%
Above 72.5%
Sep 15 @ 4:00 AM
Best AI this week
Claude
ChatGPT
TODAY @ 4:00 PM
When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
Before 2030
Before 2029
$587,288 vol
How many launches will SpaceX have in September?
Above 8
Above 9
Sep 30 @ 4:00 AM
When will Anthropic release Mythos?
Before Jan 1, 2027
Before Dec 1, 2026
$1,614,641 vol
Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
$3,825,776 vol
SpaceX Starship 14th launch?
Before Oct 16, 2026
Before Oct 1, 2026
$165,406 vol
DeepSeek market share this week
Above 22.7%
Above 26.3%
Sep 20 @ 4:00 AM
Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?
Anthropic
OpenAI
Dec 31 @ 1:00 PM
When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
Before 2030
Before 2028
$1,553,367 vol
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Before Jan 1, 2027
Before Oct 1, 2026
$60,905 vol
Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
OpenAI
Meta
$737,603 vol
Price of NVIDIA H200 compute by Dec 31, 2026?
Above $6.39
Above $6.09
$64,709 vol
When will nuclear fusion be achieved?
Before 2035
Before 2040
$95,441 vol
Next Gemini Pro model release
Before Nov 1, 2026
Before Oct 16, 2026
$23,771 vol
When will Google release Gemini 4?
Before Dec 15, 2026
Before Nov 1, 2026
$53,113 vol
When will xAI release Grok 5?
Before 2027
Before October
$78,475 vol
Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year?
$263,639 vol
Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
$768,094 vol
OpenAI market share this week
Above 26.1%
Above 20.8%
Sep 20 @ 4:00 AM
Will a major meteor strike hit Earth before 2030?
$284,454 vol
When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
Before 2027
Before Oct 1, 2026
$1,737 vol
Highest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?
At least 65%
At least 60%
$69,940 vol
Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?
Hodge Conjecture
Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture
$1,549 vol
AI capability growth this year?
At least 1520 score
At least 1530 score
$347,375 vol
When will any company achieve AGI?
Before Jul 1, 2027
Before Apr 1, 2027
$265,911 vol
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?
Above 140
Above 145
$1,287,815 vol
Top Coding AI this month (DeepSWE)
ChatGPT
Claude
Sep 30 @ 4:00 AM