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If ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35% in 2026 AND Democrats win control of the House of Representatives after the midterms AND the U.S. enters a recession between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: "Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35%" uses POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD "Will Democrats win control of the House of Representatives?" uses CONTROL "Will the U.S. enter a recession?" uses NBERRECSS "Will the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) be at least 5%?" uses ECONSTAT For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period. Additional specifications: POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD - the threshold need only be met once during the period CONTROL - based on the Speaker of the House on Feb 1, 2027 NBERRECSS - requires two consecutive quarters in which the most recent estimates of seasonally adjusted annualized percent changes of quarterly US real GDP are negative

If ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35% in 2026 AND Democrats win control of the House of Representatives after the midterms AND the U.S. enters a recession between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: "Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35%" uses POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD "Will Democrats win control of the House of Representatives?" uses CONTROL "Will the U.S. enter a recession?" uses NBERRECSS "Will the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) be at least 5%?" uses ECONSTAT For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period. Additional specifications: POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD - the threshold need only be met once during the period CONTROL - based on the Speaker of the House on Feb 1, 2027 NBERRECSS - requires two consecutive quarters in which the most recent estimates of seasonally adjusted annualized percent changes of quarterly US real GDP are negative

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Key stats

Expiry
Dec 31, 2027(434 days)
Interest
$199,202.00
Vol (24H)
$42.43↘ 31.88%
Total
$273K
Timeline & rules

Timeline & payout

This market will close and expire when an outcome occurs. Otherwise, it closes by Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM GMT+0.

Trading prohibitions

The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
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Legal
Prediction markets are offered by Coinbase Financial Markets, a registered futures commission merchant with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and a Member of the National Futures Association. Trading prediction contracts involve substantial risk and may result in the loss of your entire investment. Contracts pay out only if the specified event occurs. Trade only if you understand the product and believe it is appropriate for your financial situation and objectives.Certain content has been prepared by third parties not affiliated with Coinbase Financial Markets or any of its affiliates and Coinbase is not responsible for such content. Coinbase is not liable for any errors or delays in content, or for any actions taken in reliance on any content. Information is provided for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell a particular digital asset or to employ a particular investment strategy. Coinbase makes no representation on the accuracy, suitability, or validity of any information provided or for a particular asset. Prices shown are for illustrative purposes only. Actual cryptocurrency prices and associated stats may vary. Data presented may reflect assets traded on Coinbase’s exchange and select other cryptocurrency exchanges. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.