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If a Source Agency confirms after Issuance and before Dec 1, 2026 that human error caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop on Nov 13, then the market resolves to Yes. This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. The ground stop is the nationwide departure ground stop the FAA ordered on Nov 13, 2026. A cause counts if a Source Agency reports it as a cause of the ground stop or of the radio, radar or other system outage behind it. More than one market can resolve to Yes. Equipment or system failure: a malfunction of hardware, software, power or telecommunications equipment used by the FAA or its contractors, including one set off by maintenance work or accidental damage. A cyberattack, jamming or sabotage is not a failure. Maintenance or upgrade work: planned maintenance, an upgrade, a configuration change or a cutover on an FAA or contractor system Cable cut or physical damage: accidental damage to a cable, line, antenna or other physical equipment, including by construction work or weather Software or configuration error: a fault in software, or a wrong setting or configuration, in an FAA or contractor system, including one introduced by an update or upgrade Telecom carrier or contractor fault: the failure, damage, error or work behind the outage was in equipment, a network or a system run by a company other than the FAA, such as a telecommunications carrier or an FAA contractor SMART AI system: a malfunction or error in, or the deployment or rollout of, the FAA's SMART air traffic management system, including its interaction with other FAA systems Human error: a mistake by a person, such as an FAA employee, air traffic controller, technician or contractor, set off the outage, including a wrong command, setting, procedure or physical action. A deliberate act meant to disrupt equipment or operations does not count. AI tool or agent error: an AI system or AI agent (a machine-learning model, large language model or autonomous agent) itself produced the action, output or change that caused the outage, and the Source Agency describes that system as AI. It does not count if AI was only part of the affected system, used by staff or contractors, running at the time, or used to help write software that later failed. Any specific cause confirmed: a Source Agency confirms what caused the telecommunications outage behind the ground stop by naming a particular malfunction, error, damage or other event. If no cause is confirmed before Dec 1, 2026, this market resolves to No. The following do NOT count: A report that a cause is suspected, being investigated or has not been ruled out A statement that the ground stop followed a communication, radio or radar outage or issue, without saying what caused that outage A cause of a different outage or ground stop This market is NOT mutually exclusive: more than one market can resolve to Yes. For example, a problem with the SMART rollout can also count for Maintenance or upgrade work and, if it is a software or configuration fault, for Software or configuration error.

If a Source Agency confirms after Issuance and before Dec 1, 2026 that human error caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop on Nov 13, then the market resolves to Yes. This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. The ground stop is the nationwide departure ground stop the FAA ordered on Nov 13, 2026. A cause counts if a Source Agency reports it as a cause of the ground stop or of the radio, radar or other system outage behind it. More than one market can resolve to Yes. Equipment or system failure: a malfunction of hardware, software, power or telecommunications equipment used by the FAA or its contractors, including one set off by maintenance work or accidental damage. A cyberattack, jamming or sabotage is not a failure. Maintenance or upgrade work: planned maintenance, an upgrade, a configuration change or a cutover on an FAA or contractor system Cable cut or physical damage: accidental damage to a cable, line, antenna or other physical equipment, including by construction work or weather Software or configuration error: a fault in software, or a wrong setting or configuration, in an FAA or contractor system, including one introduced by an update or upgrade Telecom carrier or contractor fault: the failure, damage, error or work behind the outage was in equipment, a network or a system run by a company other than the FAA, such as a telecommunications carrier or an FAA contractor SMART AI system: a malfunction or error in, or the deployment or rollout of, the FAA's SMART air traffic management system, including its interaction with other FAA systems Human error: a mistake by a person, such as an FAA employee, air traffic controller, technician or contractor, set off the outage, including a wrong command, setting, procedure or physical action. A deliberate act meant to disrupt equipment or operations does not count. AI tool or agent error: an AI system or AI agent (a machine-learning model, large language model or autonomous agent) itself produced the action, output or change that caused the outage, and the Source Agency describes that system as AI. It does not count if AI was only part of the affected system, used by staff or contractors, running at the time, or used to help write software that later failed. Any specific cause confirmed: a Source Agency confirms what caused the telecommunications outage behind the ground stop by naming a particular malfunction, error, damage or other event. If no cause is confirmed before Dec 1, 2026, this market resolves to No. The following do NOT count: A report that a cause is suspected, being investigated or has not been ruled out A statement that the ground stop followed a communication, radio or radar outage or issue, without saying what caused that outage A cause of a different outage or ground stop This market is NOT mutually exclusive: more than one market can resolve to Yes. For example, a problem with the SMART rollout can also count for Maintenance or upgrade work and, if it is a software or configuration fault, for Software or configuration error.

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Key stats

Expiry
Dec 1, 2026(18 days)
Interest
$132,185.86
Vol (24H)
$77,087.09→ 0.00%
Total
$107K

Details

Timeline & rules

Timeline & payout

This market will close and expire when an outcome occurs. Otherwise, it closes by Dec 1, 2026, 4:59 AM GMT+0.

Trading prohibitions

The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
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