Prediction Markets

DeepSeek market share this week

Above 25.3%

Above 25.5%

Best AI at the end of 2026?

Claude

Gemini

How many launches will SpaceX have in October?

Above 10

Above 11

Best AI this week

Gemini

Claude

OpenAI market share this week

Above 17.7%

Above 18.4%

Anthropic share of spend on Oct 20, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 30.9%

Above 35.4%

Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?

Anthropic

OpenAI

Anthropic market share this week

Above 4.9%

Above 5.0%

Google market share this week

Above 18.0%

Above 19.0%

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

Before Jan 20, 2029

Before Jan 1, 2028

Best AI in Oct 2026?

Gemini

Claude

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

United States

China

When will OpenAI release Astra 6.1?

Before Nov 6, 2026

Before Nov 13, 2026

Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

Claude

Gemini

DeepSeek share of requests on Oct 20, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 10.4%

Above 12.2%

Open vs. Closed Token market share (Vercel) in Oct 20, 2026

Above 54.8%

Above 56.3%

Anthropic share of requests on Oct 20, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 6.1%

Above 7.4%

Where will Waymo operate in 2026?

Sacramento, CA

Detroit, MI

When will Anthropic release Mythos?

Before Jan 1, 2027

Before Dec 1, 2026

When will OpenAI release a personal AI agent?

Before Jan 1, 2027

Before Dec 1, 2026

US test scores in Reading in 2026?

No significant difference

Significant decrease

Number of data centers in Pennsylvania this year?

At least 185

At least 195

Will OpenAI increase the cost of ChatGPT?

Moonshot AI share of spend on Oct 20, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 4.2%

Above 5.4%

Pandemic in 2026?

AI capability growth this year?

At least 1540 score

At least 1550 score

Will the FDA approve retatrutide?

Before Jan 1, 2028

Before Jul 1, 2027

Will a pneumonic plague case be reported in the U.S. this year?

Before December 1, 2026

Before January 1, 2027

Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score

above 1515

above 1495

How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?

Above 0

Above 1

When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?

Before 2030

Before 2029

OpenAI share of spend on Oct 20, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 11.5%

Above 18.7%

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