Prediction Markets

Best AI at the end of 2026?

Gemini

Claude

Best AI this month

Gemini

Claude

Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Nov 7, 2026

Above 70.6%

Above 71.9%

OpenRouter token usage in Nov 2–8, 2026

Above 210T tokens

Above 214T tokens

When will OpenAI release Astra 6.1+?

Before Dec 31, 2026

Before Nov 13, 2026

Best AI this week

Qwen

Amazon Nova

Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Nov 8, 2026

Above 58.2%

Above 64.9%

Anthropic market share this week

Above 5.7%

Above 5.9%

OpenAI market share this week

Above 19.1%

Above 19.5%

When will any company achieve AGI?

Before Apr 1, 2028

Before Jan 1, 2028

Anthropic share of requests on Nov 8, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 7.1%

Above 7.2%

Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year?

Where will Waymo operate in 2026?

Denver, CO

Las Vegas, NV

DeepSeek market share this week

Above 25.9%

Above 32.1%

Google market share this week

Above 13.8%

Above 14.4%

Anthropic share of spend on Nov 8, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 38.8%

Above 42.4%

Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?

Meta

OpenAI

When will Anthropic release Mythos?

Before Jan 1, 2027

Before Dec 1, 2026

Will Meta release Llama 5 this year?

Tesla Optimus released this year?

Will OpenAI increase the cost of ChatGPT?

When will Anthropic release Fable 5.2?

Before Dec 16, 2026

Before Nov 16, 2026

Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?

Anthropic

OpenAI

Next Gemini Pro model release

Before Dec 1, 2026

Before Nov 16, 2026

Highest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?

At least 60%

At least 65%

Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Nov 9, 2026

Above 62.9%

Above 64.5%

Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

Gemini

Claude

Top AI model this month

Gemini 4 Carbon (High)

gemini-4-argon-high

Best LLM at the end of the decade?

Essential AI

Google

What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?

Clip-on device for clothing

Earbuds/Headphones

DeepSeek share of requests on Nov 10, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 12.3%

Above 13.1%

Anthropic share of spend on Nov 10, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 34.5%

Above 33.0%

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