Prediction Markets

Best AI at the end of 2026?

Claude

Gemini

Google market share this week

Above 18.0%

Above 18.2%

OpenAI market share this week

Above 19.2%

Above 19.5%

DeepSeek market share this week

Above 24.1%

Above 24.4%

Best AI this week

Gemini

Claude

When will OpenAI release Astra 6.1?

Before Nov 6, 2026

Before Nov 13, 2026

Where will Waymo operate in 2026?

Las Vegas, NV

Minneapolis, MN

Top Chinese AI Company week of October 19th

Xiaomi

Alibaba

Best AI in Oct 2026?

Gemini

Claude

Anthropic market share this week

Above 3.8%

Above 4.5%

Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Oct 14, 2026

Above 51.2%

Above 56.2%

Top AI model this week

gemini-4-argon-high

claude-opus-5.5-high

Next Gemini Pro model release

Before Dec 1, 2026

Before Nov 16, 2026

OpenAI share of spend on Oct 16, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 17.9%

Above 16.5%

DeepSeek share of requests on Oct 16, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 13.4%

Above 14.0%

Moonshot AI share of spend on Oct 16, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 8.5%

Above 9.4%

DeepSeek share of requests on Oct 14, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 11.7%

Above 10.9%

Highest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?

At least 60%

At least 65%

OpenAI share of spend on Oct 14, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 15.7%

Above 16.4%

Moonshot AI share of spend on Oct 14, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 5.0%

Above 6.4%

Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score

above 1490

above 1495

Anthropic share of requests on Oct 16, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 6.7%

Above 7.3%

Anthropic share of spend on Oct 16, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 35.3%

Above 39.2%

Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?

OpenAI

Meta

OpenAI

Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

Gemini

Claude

OpenAI share of requests on Oct 14, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 24.1%

Above 24.9%

Alibaba vs Xiaomi: Highest Arena Score at the end of 2026

Alibaba

Xiaomi

When will OpenAI achieve AGI?

Before 2030

Before 2028

Anthropic vs Google: Highest Arena Score at the end of 2026

Anthropic

Google

Google share of requests on Oct 16, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 13.6%

Above 14.5%

Anthropic share of requests on Oct 14, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 5.6%

Above 6.5%

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