Mercados de previsão

Best AI at the end of 2026?

Gemini

Claude

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

Before Jan 20, 2029

Before Jan 1, 2028

Best AI this month

Gemini

Claude

Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Nov 11, 2026

Above 65.1%

Above 66.1%

Anthropic market share this week

Above 6.0%

Above 6.3%

Best AI this week

Gemini

Claude

DeepSeek market share this week

Above 30.8%

Above 31.2%

Google market share this week

Above 14.3%

Above 14.9%

OpenAI market share this week

Above 18.2%

Above 18.9%

When will OpenAI release Astra 6.1+?

Before Dec 31, 2026

Before Nov 13, 2026

OpenRouter token usage in Nov 9–15, 2026

Above 207T tokens

Above 215T tokens

How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?

Above 0

Above 1

When will Anthropic release Mythos?

Before Jan 1, 2027

Before Dec 1, 2026

Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?

Anthropic

OpenAI

Will two SpaceX Starships dock together before 2028?

Where will Waymo operate in 2026?

Denver, CO

Las Vegas, NV

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?

Above 140

Above 145

Measles cases in 2026?

Above 7000

Above 8000

How many launches will SpaceX have in November?

Above 7

Above 8

OpenAI share of requests on Nov 12, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 19.2%

Above 20.1%

What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?

Clip-on device for clothing

Earbuds/Headphones

When will any company achieve AGI?

Before Apr 1, 2028

Before Jan 1, 2028

Next Gemini Pro model release

Before Dec 1, 2026

Before Nov 16, 2026

Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?

SpaceX Starship 15th launch?

Before Nov 15, 2026

Before Nov 14, 2026

When will P vs NP be resolved?

Before 2040

Before 2035

When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?

before December

before 2027

AI capability growth this year?

At least 1550 score

At least 1600 score

US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?

What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?

Oil

Coal

Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?

OpenAI

xAI

Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?

Central African Republic

South Sudan

Esportes

Criptomoedas

Eleições

Política

Entretenimento

Menções

Commodities

Economia

Finanças

Clima

Ciência e tecnologia

Empresas

Mercados de previsão de Science and Technology

Em alta

Esportes

Criptomoedas

Eleições

Política

Entretenimento

Menções

Commodities

Economia

Finanças

Clima

Ciência e tecnologia

Empresas

Redes sociais

Mercados de previsão de Science and Technology