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ZakupWypłata
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$222
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Informacje

If New Hampshire is the first Democratic primary or caucus during the 2028 presidential cycle, then the market resolves to Yes. The determination is based on the official calendar or schedule announced or recognized by the party, not on when primaries or caucuses actually take place. Only primaries and caucuses that are officially recognized by the party as part of the presidential nominating process are considered. Unofficial “beauty contest” primaries, straw polls, or events where the party has indicated no delegates will be awarded are not encompassed by the Payout Criterion. If multiple states are scheduled for the same date as the earliest date, then the markets for all such states will resolve so "Yes" holders receive $1 divided by the number of states scheduled for that earliest date rounded down to the nearest cent and "No" holders receive $1 minus the Yes payout. If the party has not announced an official calendar before the end date, then determination will be based on the consensus of Source Agencies regarding which state the party recognizes as scheduled first. Examples that would resolve the market to Yes include: the party announces that New Hampshire will hold the first primary on January 23, 2028 (where 2028 is the election year), the party releases an official calendar showing Iowa with the first caucus date, or the party announces Iowa and New Hampshire are both scheduled for the same date, which is the earliest date (both states’ markets resolve to $0.50). Examples that would NOT resolve the market to Yes include: a state announces it will go first but the party has not recognized this in their official calendar, a state holds an unsanctioned primary that the party says will result in no delegates, or a state is scheduled second or later in the party’s official calendar. Wynik zweryfikowany przez official organizations, ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, New York Times, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The Washington Post, Bloomberg News, the Associated Press, Energy Information Administration, Politico

If New Hampshire is the first Democratic primary or caucus during the 2028 presidential cycle, then the market resolves to Yes. The determination is based on the official calendar or schedule announced or recognized by the party, not on when primaries or caucuses actually take place. Only primaries and caucuses that are officially recognized by the party as part of the presidential nominating process are considered. Unofficial “beauty contest” primaries, straw polls, or events where the party has indicated no delegates will be awarded are not encompassed by the Payout Criterion. If multiple states are scheduled for the same date as the earliest date, then the markets for all such states will resolve so "Yes" holders receive $1 divided by the number of states scheduled for that earliest date rounded down to the nearest cent and "No" holders receive $1 minus the Yes payout. If the party has not announced an official calendar before the end date, then determination will be based on the consensus of Source Agencies regarding which state the party recognizes as scheduled first. Examples that would resolve the market to Yes include: the party announces that New Hampshire will hold the first primary on January 23, 2028 (where 2028 is the election year), the party releases an official calendar showing Iowa with the first caucus date, or the party announces Iowa and New Hampshire are both scheduled for the same date, which is the earliest date (both states’ markets resolve to $0.50). Examples that would NOT resolve the market to Yes include: a state announces it will go first but the party has not recognized this in their official calendar, a state holds an unsanctioned primary that the party says will result in no delegates, or a state is scheduled second or later in the party’s official calendar. Wynik zweryfikowany przez official organizations, ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, New York Times, CBS, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The Washington Post, Bloomberg News, the Associated Press, Energy Information Administration, Politico

Nie wykryto wolumenu, bądź pierwszy!

Kluczowe statystyki

Wygaśnięcie
7 lis 2028(873 dni)
Odsetki
10 633,66 USD
Łącznie
38 tys. USD

Szczegóły

Harmonogram i zasady

Harmonogram i wypłata

Ten rynek zostanie zamknięty i wygaśnie, gdy wystąpi wynik. W przeciwnym razie zamknie się do 7 lis 2028, 3:00 PM GMT+0.

Ograniczenia handlu

Następujące podmioty mają zakaz handlu tym kontraktem:
  • Any candidate currently listed as a market within this event.
  • Immediate family members (spouses and dependents) of any candidate currently listed as a market within this event.
  • Paid staffers on any campaign listed within this event.
  • Third-party vendors, contractors, consultants, and outside counsel (and employees thereof) engaged by any campaign listed within this event.
  • Paid employees of national, state, or congressional party organizations (including, e.g., the DNC, RNC, DCCC, NRCC, DSCC, and NRSC).
  • Paid employees of Political Action Committees (PACs) and independent-expenditure-only political committees ("Super PACs") active in any race listed within this event.
  • Registered federal lobbyists retained by any campaign, party organization, or PAC active in any race listed within this event.
  • Holders of federal and statewide public office.
  • State legislators serving on committees with jurisdiction over election administration in any state with a race listed within this event.
  • All staff of the U.S. House of Representatives and its members.
  • All staff of the U.S. Senate and its members.
  • All staff of the Executive Office of the President, including the Office of the President and the Office of the Vice President.
  • Commissioners and staff of the Federal Election Commission.
  • Senior staff (Schedule C and equivalent political appointees) of any federal agency with jurisdiction over election administration, election security, or election-related enforcement, including without limitation the Department of Justice (Public Integrity Section, Election Crimes Branch, and Civil Rights Division Voting Section) and the Department of Homeland Security (CISA).
  • All staff of the U.S. Supreme Court and its Justices.
  • Federal and state judges presiding over active litigation related to any race listed within this event.
  • All Electors who may cast ballots in connection with the determination of the President and/or Vice President of the United States.
  • State Secretaries of State (and equivalent chief election officials), members of state and local boards of elections, election directors, registrars, and senior staff of state and local election administration offices.
  • Any person working in a vote-tallying capacity, or who has the potential ability to observe official vote counts before they are public.
  • Paid employees of major polling organizations. The Exchange shall maintain and publish a list of polling organizations it has designated as "major" and may modify that list at any time. This prohibition does not apply to all employees of an organization that contains a polling division (e.g., the prohibition does not apply to all employees of Quinnipiac University despite the presence of Quinnipiac University's polling division).
  • Employees of Decision Desks at major media organizations, including but not limited to Fox News, ABC News, the Associated Press, CNN, CBS News, Decision Desk HQ, NBC News, The New York Times, and Reuters.
  • Employees of exit-polling and election-night survey operations engaged by media organizations or campaigns in any race listed within this event, including but not limited to Edison Research and the National Election Pool.
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Przepisy prawne
Rynki prognoz są oferowane przez Coinbase Financial Markets, pośrednika w obrocie kontraktami futures zarejestrowanego w Commodity Futures Trading Commission i członka National Futures Association. Kontrakty handlu prognozami wiążą się ze znacznym ryzykiem i mogą skutkować utratą całej inwestycji. Płatność z tytułu kontraktu następuje tylko w przypadku wystąpienia określonego zdarzenia. Handluj tylko wtedy, gdy rozumiesz produkt i uważasz, że jest on odpowiedni dla Twojej sytuacji finansowej i Twoich celów.Niektóre treści zostały przygotowane przez podmioty trzecie niezwiązane z firmą Coinbase Financial Markets ani jakimkolwiek z jej podmiotów stowarzyszonych i Coinbase nie ponosi odpowiedzialności za takie treści. Coinbase nie ponosi odpowiedzialności za jakiekolwiek błędy lub opóźnienia w treści ani za żadne działania podjęte w oparciu o jakąkolwiek treść. Informacje służą wyłącznie celom informacyjnym i nie stanowią porady inwestycyjnej. To nie jest rekomendacja kupna ani sprzedaży jakiegokolwiek aktywa cyfrowego lub zastosowania określonej strategii inwestycyjnej. Coinbase nie składa żadnych oświadczeń dotyczących dokładności, aktualności ani przydatności dostarczonych informacji lub konkretnego aktywa. Podane ceny mają charakter wyłącznie ilustracyjny. Rzeczywiste ceny kryptowalut i związane z nimi statystyki mogą się różnić. Przedstawione dane mogą odzwierciedlać aktywa będące przedmiotem obrotu na giełdzie Coinbase i wybranych innych giełdach kryptowalut. Wyniki osiągnięte w przeszłości nie są wiarygodnym wyznacznikiem przyszłych wyników.