Prediction Markets

Katie Zacharia out as White House Press Secretary?

Before Jul 1, 2027

Before Jan 1, 2027

Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 14, 2026?

Above 38.4%

38.4%

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

Before Jan 1, 2028

Before Dec 1, 2027

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/12 - 10/18)

Above 22

Above 25

Trump Truth Social posts this week? (10/11-10/17)

160-179

180-199

Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/12 - 10/18)

Above 280

Above 300

Which leaders will leave office in 2026?

Christopher Luxon

Benjamin Netanyahu

Will Donald Trump attend UFC 333?

Will the SAVE Act become law?

Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/12 - 10/18)

Above 190

Above 200

How many days will Trump be photographed this week? (10/12-10/18)

7

6

Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/12 - 10/18)

Above 5

Above 6

Trump's approval rating on Oct 16, 2026?

Above 38.7

38.2 to 38.4

Brazil presidential runoff: will Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro debate?

Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?

Cassidy Hutchinson

Ilhan Omar

Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 15, 2026?

Above 38.8%

38.6%

Will NYC ban horse-drawn carriages in 2026?

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/12 - 10/18)

Above 170

Above 190

Donald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death)

Before January 20, 2029

Before 2028

Generic congressional ballot on Oct 14, 2026?

Below 8.1%

8.2%

Will Mitch McConnell resign his office before the midterms?

How many states will Trump visit in Oct 2026?

At least 22

At least 23

How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (10/11-10/17)

At least 4

At least 5

Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/12 - 10/18)

October 13

October 15

How many people will Trump endorse on Truth Social this week? (10/10-10/16)

At least 10

At least 15

Trump Truth Social posts on Oct 14, 2026?

40+

30-39

Will President Trump be impeached during his term?

How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (10/11 - 10/17)

Above 0

Above 1

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense?

Before Apr 1, 2027

Before Feb 1, 2027

Will Trump be impeached?

Before Oct 1, 2027

Before Aug 1, 2027

Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh?

Before Apr 1, 2027

Before Jan 1, 2027

US-Iran nuclear deal?

Before Jan 20, 2029

Before Jan 1, 2028

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