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Science and Technology Mercados preditivos

Best AI at the end of 2026?
Claude
ChatGPT
31 de dez. @ 1:00 PM
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
Before Jan 20, 2029
Before 2028
Vol. US$ 59.448.717
SpaceX Starship 13th launch?
Before August
Before July 24th
Vol. US$ 492.967
How many launches will SpaceX have in July?
Above 12
Above 13
31 de jul. @ 4:00 AM
Best AI this week
Gemini
ChatGPT
HOJE @ 4:00 PM
Best AI in Jul 2026?
Claude
Kimi
Vol. US$ 838.114
Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?
Anthropic
OpenAI
31 de dez. @ 1:00 PM
Top AI model in July?
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
claude-fable-5
31 de jul. @ 4:00 AM
When will Anthropic release Mythos?
Before Jan 1, 2027
Before Dec 1, 2026
Vol. US$ 2.007.817
Top Coding AI this month
ChatGPT
Claude
31 de jul. @ 4:00 AM
Measles cases in 2026?
Above 3000
Não
Above 4000
Não
Vol. US$ 1.333.975
Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026?
Atomic Alchemy
Oklo
Vol. US$ 243.309
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?
Above 150
Above 160
Vol. US$ 1.010.583
Total space launches in July
Above 15
Above 16
31 de jul. @ 4:00 AM
When will OpenAI release GPT-6?
Before Oct 1, 2026
Before Sep 1, 2026
Vol. US$ 298.440
Top AI model this week
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
claude-fable-5
27 de jul. @ 4:00 AM
Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?
Claude
Gemini
Vol. US$ 197.262
When will Anthropic release the next Claude Opus model?
Before Jul 31, 2026
Before Jul 24, 2026
Vol. US$ 19.069
Tesla Optimus released this year?
Vol. US$ 658.280
How many space launches will there be in Jul 2026?
Above 15
Above 16
31 de jul. @ 4:00 AM
Top Coding AI this week
Kimi
Claude
HOJE @ 4:00 PM
When will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro?
Before Aug 16, 2026
Before Jul 31, 2026
Vol. US$ 97.936
When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
Before November
Before September
Vol. US$ 93.634
Top Math AI this month
Claude
ChatGPT
31 de jul. @ 4:00 AM
When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
Before 2030
Before 2028
Vol. US$ 1.185.569
What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?
Clip-on device for clothing
Earbuds/Headphones
Vol. US$ 247.572
Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
Vol. US$ 701.593
How many SpaceX Starship launches will reach space in 2026?
5
4
Vol. US$ 42.891
Pandemic in 2026?
Vol. US$ 1.320.009
When will AI solve another Frontier Math Problem?
Before October
Before September
Vol. US$ 94.749
Highest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2027?
At least 75%
At least 80%
Vol. US$ 29.829
Will Anthropic disable Fable 5 access for US customers?
Before Aug 31, 2026
Before Jul 31, 2026
Vol. US$ 29.674