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Science and Technology Mercados preditivos

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
Before Jan 20, 2029
Before 2028
Vol. US$ 60.925.902
Where will Waymo operate in 2026?
Sacramento, CA
New Orleans, LA
Vol. US$ 542.282
Best AI at the end of 2026?
Claude
ChatGPT
31 de dez. @ 1:00 PM
Anthropic market share this week
Above 2.85%
Above 3.05%
20 de set. @ 4:00 AM
Tencent market share this week
Above 4.5%
Above 5.6%
20 de set. @ 4:00 AM
OpenAI market share this week
Above 18.5%
Above 18%
20 de set. @ 4:00 AM
Qwen market share this week
Above 6.75%
Above 7.25%
20 de set. @ 4:00 AM
DeepSeek market share this week
Above 24.3%
Above 24.7%
20 de set. @ 4:00 AM
When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
Before 2030
Before 2028
Vol. US$ 1.624.233
Best AI in Sep 2026?
Claude
Gemini
Vol. US$ 1.196.450
SpaceX Starship 14th launch?
Before Oct 1, 2026
Before Sep 29, 2026
Vol. US$ 212.318
How many launches will SpaceX have in September?
Above 7
Above 8
30 de set. @ 4:00 AM
Google market share this week
Above 18.6%
Above 18.8%
20 de set. @ 4:00 AM
Best AI this week
Claude
Gemini
14 de set. @ 4:00 PM
Number of data centers in Pennsylvania this year?
At least 190
At least 195
Vol. US$ 114.068
OpenRouter AI token usage: Sep 14–20
Above 126T tokens
Above 128T tokens
20 de set. @ 4:00 AM
Top Chinese AI Company week of September 21st
Alibaba
Z.ai
14 de set. @ 2:00 PM
NASA lands on the moon?
Ícone de mercado Before 2030
Before 2030
Ícone de mercado Before 2029
Before 2029
Vol. US$ 1.088.865
When will any company achieve AGI?
Before Oct 1, 2027
Before Jul 1, 2027
Vol. US$ 294.750
When will Anthropic release Claude 6?
Before Mar 31, 2027
Before Dec 31, 2026
Vol. US$ 6.754
Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
Vol. US$ 599.370
When will Anthropic release Mythos?
Before Jan 1, 2027
Before Dec 1, 2026
Vol. US$ 1.657.599
OpenAI corporate adoption rate in September
Above 39.5%
Above 40.1%
Vol. US$ 6.291
Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
OpenAI
Meta
Vol. US$ 754.210
Top Coding AI this month (Arena.ai)
ChatGPT
Claude
30 de set. @ 4:00 AM
Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
Vol. US$ 774.349
Next Gemini Pro model release
Before Nov 1, 2026
Before Oct 16, 2026
Vol. US$ 35.581
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?
Above 140
Above 145
Vol. US$ 1.306.253
When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
Before Dec 1, 2026
Before Nov 1, 2026
Vol. US$ 6.004
How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Above 0
Above 1
Vol. US$ 284.650
What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?
Clip-on device for clothing
Computer
Vol. US$ 296.391
When will Beam Therapeutics submit a BLA for Risto-cel?
before 2027
before December
Vol. US$ 32.527