Mercados de predicciones

Best AI at the end of 2026?

Gemini

Claude

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

Before Jan 20, 2029

Before Jan 1, 2028

Best AI this month

Gemini

Claude

Best AI this week

Gemini

Claude

Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Nov 9, 2026

Above 62.9%

Above 64.5%

Next Gemini Pro model release

Before Dec 1, 2026

Before Nov 16, 2026

When will OpenAI release Astra 6.1+?

Before Dec 31, 2026

Before Nov 13, 2026

AI capability growth this year?

At least 1550 score

At least 1600 score

When will Anthropic release Mythos?

Before Dec 1, 2026

Before Jan 1, 2027

How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?

Above 0

Above 1

US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?

When will any company achieve AGI?

Before Apr 1, 2028

Before Jan 1, 2028

Anthropic share of spend on Nov 10, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 34.5%

Above 41.8%

When will Anthropic release Fable 5.2?

Before Dec 1, 2026

Before Dec 16, 2026

Google market share this week

Above 13.2%

Above 14.9%

Measles cases in 2026?

Above 7000

Above 8000

DeepSeek market share this week

Above 30.8%

Above 31.2%

How many launches will SpaceX have in November?

Above 8

Above 9

Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?

Central African Republic

South Sudan

Where will Waymo operate in 2026?

Denver, CO

Las Vegas, NV

OpenAI market share this week

Above 19.4%

Above 20.0%

Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Nov 10, 2026

Above 55.1%

Above 59.6%

Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?

Anthropic

OpenAI

When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?

before April 2027

before December

Highest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?

At least 65%

At least 75%

Will a pneumonic plague case be reported in the U.S. this year?

Before January 1, 2027

Before December 1, 2026

Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year?

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?

Above 140

Above 145

When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?

Before 2035

Before 2030

Will OpenAI increase the cost of ChatGPT?

Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?

When will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch?

Before Apr 2027

Before Mar 2027

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Mercados de predicción Science and Technology

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Mercados de predicción Science and Technology