Prediction Markets

Best AI at the end of 2026?

Gemini

Claude

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

Before Jan 20, 2029

Before Jan 1, 2028

How many launches will SpaceX have in October?

Above 10

Above 12

Google market share this week

Above 17.3%

Above 18.4%

Best AI in Oct 2026?

Claude

Qwen

Where will Waymo operate in 2026?

Denver, CO

Detroit, MI

Anthropic share of spend on Oct 30, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 29.2%

Above 30.8%

Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Oct 30, 2026

Above 62.2%

Above 69.3%

Google share of requests on Oct 30, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 10.8%

Above 11.1%

DeepSeek market share this week

Above 27.8%

Above 28.9%

Will a major meteor strike hit Earth before 2030?

Anthropic market share this week

Above 5.8%

Above 5.4%

When will OpenAI release Astra 6.1?

Before Dec 31, 2026

Before Nov 13, 2026

Will the FDA approve retatrutide?

Before Jan 1, 2028

Before Jul 1, 2027

Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

Gemini

Claude

OpenAI market share this week

Above 20.0%

Above 19.2%

When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?

Before 2027

Before November

Best AI this week

Gemini

Claude

Moonshot AI share of spend on Oct 30, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 4.2%

Above 8.9%

SpaceX Starship 15th launch?

Before Nov 27, 2026

Before Nov 13, 2026

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?

Above 140

Above 145

Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?

OpenAI

Meta

Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?

Anthropic

OpenAI

OpenRouter token usage in Oct 26–Nov 1

Above 188T tokens

Above 187T tokens

Next Gemini Pro model release

Before Nov 16, 2026

Before Dec 1, 2026

When will OpenAI release a personal AI agent?

Before Jan 1, 2027

Before Dec 1, 2026

Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Nov 1, 2026

Above 68.5%

Above 70.2%

Will SpaceX test its HLS before 2027?

Top AI model this month

gemini-4-argon-high

claude-opus-5.5-high

AI capability growth this year?

At least 1550 score

At least 1600 score

Pandemic in 2026?

Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?

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