Prediction Markets

Best AI at the end of 2026?

Claude

Gemini

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

Before Jan 20, 2029

Before Jan 1, 2028

Best AI this week

Gemini

Claude

When will OpenAI release Astra 6.1?

Before Nov 13, 2026

Before Nov 6, 2026

OpenAI market share this week

Above 19.5%

Above 20.5%

DeepSeek market share this week

Above 24.1%

Above 24.4%

Best AI in Oct 2026?

Gemini

Claude

How many launches will SpaceX have in October?

Above 10

Above 11

Google market share this week

Above 18.0%

Above 18.5%

Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?

Anthropic

OpenAI

Will the FDA approve retatrutide?

Before Jan 1, 2028

Before Jul 1, 2027

Meta vs OpenAI: Highest Arena Score at the end of 2026

Meta

OpenAI

Next Gemini Pro model release

Before Dec 1, 2026

Before Nov 16, 2026

Will a pneumonic plague case be reported in the U.S. this year?

Before January 1, 2027

Before December 1, 2026

Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

Claude

Gemini

Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?

Above 140

Above 145

Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Oct 14, 2026

Above 56.2%

Above 60.9%

Number of data centers in Pennsylvania this year?

At least 190

At least 195

Top AI model this week

gemini-4-argon-high

claude-opus-5.5-high

Top AI model this month

gemini-4-argon-high

claude-opus-5.5-high

Anthropic market share this week

Above 3.7%

Above 4.5%

Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?

OpenAI

Meta

Tesla Optimus released this year?

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

United States

China

When will SpaceX launch Dragon CRS-35?

Before Oct 16, 2026

Before Nov 1, 2026

Total space launches in October

Above 11

Above 12

Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?

Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?

Measles cases in 2026?

Above 6000

Above 8000

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?

Before 2040

Before 2035

Where will Waymo operate in 2026?

Tampa, FL

Yes

Las Vegas, NV

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