Prediction Markets

Google market share this week

Above 18.9%

Above 19.5%

DeepSeek market share this week

Above 24.4%

Above 24.7%

Best AI at the end of 2026?

Claude

Gemini

OpenAI market share this week

Above 18.1%

Above 18.4%

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

Before Jan 20, 2029

Before Jan 1, 2028

Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Oct 16, 2026

Above 56.1%

Above 55.1%

Anthropic market share this week

Above 4.0%

Above 4.5%

Best AI this week

Gemini

Claude

Tesla Optimus released this year?

Anthropic share of requests on Oct 16, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 7.0%

Above 7.9%

Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?

Google share of requests on Oct 16, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 12.4%

Above 13.6%

Anthropic share of spend on Oct 16, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 36.2%

Above 39.2%

OpenAI share of spend on Oct 16, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 14.2%

Above 15.5%

When will OpenAI release Astra 6.1?

Before Nov 13, 2026

Before Nov 6, 2026

Measles cases in 2026?

Above 6000

Above 8000

Best AI in Oct 2026?

Gemini

Claude

Pandemic in 2026?

Moonshot AI share of spend on Oct 16, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 4.4%

Above 5.5%

How many launches will SpaceX have in October?

Above 10

Above 11

Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026?

Alibaba

DeepSeek

OpenRouter token usage in Oct 12–18

Above 168T tokens

Above 174T tokens

DeepSeek share of requests on Oct 16, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 12.6%

Above 11.7%

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?

Above 140

Above 145

SpaceX Starship 15th launch?

Before Nov 27, 2026

Before Nov 13, 2026

OpenAI share of requests on Oct 16, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 25.1%

Above 25.7%

Top AI model this week

gemini-4-argon-high

claude-opus-5.5-high

Ebola pandemic in 2026?

When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?

Before 2030

Before 2029

When will Anthropic release Mythos?

Before Jan 1, 2027

Before Dec 1, 2026

Will a pneumonic plague case be reported in the U.S. this year?

Before January 1, 2027

Before December 1, 2026

How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?

Above 0

Above 2

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