Prediction Markets

Google market share this week

Above 18.9%

Above 19.5%

OpenAI market share this week

Above 18.1%

Above 18.4%

DeepSeek market share this week

Above 24.1%

Above 24.4%

Best AI at the end of 2026?

Claude

Gemini

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

Before Jan 20, 2029

Before Jan 1, 2028

Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Oct 16, 2026

Above 55.1%

Above 56.1%

Anthropic market share this week

Above 4.0%

Above 4.5%

Tesla Optimus released this year?

Anthropic share of requests on Oct 16, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 4.4%

Above 7.9%

Best AI in Oct 2026?

Gemini

Claude

Best AI this week

Gemini

Claude

Anthropic share of spend on Oct 16, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 36.2%

Above 40.1%

OpenAI share of spend on Oct 16, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 14.2%

Above 15.5%

Google share of requests on Oct 16, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 12.4%

Above 12.8%

When will OpenAI release Astra 6.1?

Before Nov 13, 2026

Before Nov 6, 2026

Measles cases in 2026?

Above 7000

Above 8000

How many launches will SpaceX have in October?

Above 10

Above 11

Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?

Moonshot AI share of spend on Oct 16, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 4.4%

Above 5.5%

DeepSeek share of requests on Oct 16, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 11.7%

Above 13.4%

OpenAI share of requests on Oct 16, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 25.1%

Above 24.0%

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?

Above 140

Above 145

Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026?

Alibaba

DeepSeek

Pandemic in 2026?

OpenRouter token usage in Oct 12–18

Above 170T tokens

Above 168T tokens

SpaceX Starship 15th launch?

Before Nov 27, 2026

Before Nov 13, 2026

When will AI score above 65 on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index?

Before Feb 1, 2027

Before Jan 1, 2027

Top AI model this week

gemini-4-argon-high

claude-opus-5.5-high

Ebola pandemic in 2026?

When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?

Before 2030

Before 2029

Will a pneumonic plague case be reported in the U.S. this year?

Before January 1, 2027

Before December 1, 2026

Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?

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