Market View
We’ve continued to see a market reprieve following the 90-day pause on tariffs for non-retaliating countries (announced April 9) with bitcoin oscillating around the $84k level over the last week. US-China trade relations remain a critical factor influencing market sentiment, with the White House expressing openness to a deal and China signaling a readiness to talk.
That said, Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke at the Economic Club of Chicago on April 16 about the economic ramifications of the “significantly larger than expected” tariffs, suggesting it could lead to a possible stagflation scenario in the US. That uncertainty over macroeconomic conditions led to some market pull back, but bitcoin has continued to outperform the S&P 500 and Nasdaq on a risk-adjusted basis.
Meanwhile, we saw the SOL/ETH cross make new highs this week (to 0.0848 as of April 17), as more crypto-native investors shifted their positions from ETH to SOL or added to their SOL holdings. SOL's dip in early April was seen as an attractive entry point for market players seeking to diversify their crypto beta exposure. This strategic rotation was interesting given that SOL notably outperformed ETH even against the backdrop of positive market reactions to the SEC's approval of Ethereum ETF options for BlackRock, Grayscale, Bitwise and Fidelity.
That said, we’ve seen that regulatory advancements in this cycle have proved insufficient in offsetting the broader macroeconomic headwinds that have weighed on crypto performance. Recently, the SEC Crypto Task Force held a roundtable on trading and announced three upcoming roundtables on April 25, May 12, and June 6, 2025, focusing on custody, tokenization, and DeFi respectively. Earlier, there were also reports that the SEC plans to reassess Biden-era crypto guidance amid the ongoing regulatory realignment under the new administration.
Notably, data across global centralized exchanges (CEXs) suggest there has been relatively strong BTC volumes across products despite the broader selloff in recent weeks, which has helped BTC outperform many altcoins that suffered from both reduced demand and thinner liquidity. Of course, a significant token-specific event -- the 92% “flash crash” of Mantra's OM token on April 13 (from its peak on February 23) -- didn't help. The catalyst for the move remains unclear, but on April 16, Mantra released an official statement addressing the incident.
