Mercados de predicciones

Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 1, 2026?

Below 38.5%

38.5%

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

Before Jan 1, 2028

Before Jul 1, 2027

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4)

Above 25

Above 30

Trump Truth Social posts this week? (9/27-10/3)

140-159

160-179

2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner

Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms

Doctors Without Borders

Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?

Before Jan 31, 2028

Before Jun 1, 2027

Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4)

Above 6

Above 8

Trump's approval rating on Oct 2, 2026?

38.5 to 38.7

38.2 to 38.4

How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (9/27-10/3)

At least 6

At least 7

Donald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death)

Before January 20, 2029

Before 2028

Who will Trump pardon?

Donald Trump

Pete Hegseth

Which leaders will leave office in 2026?

Benjamin Netanyahu

Christopher Luxon

Will a federal film or TV production tax credit become law?

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense?

Before Jul 1, 2027

Before Oct 1, 2027

Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary?

Before Apr 1, 2027

Before Jul 1, 2027

Will Arkansas's crypto mining ownership ban survive appeal?

Will Maine approve contracts for the northern Maine wind and transmission project?

Traffic through the Suez Canal? (9/28 - 10/4)

Above 280

Above 290

Will Maryland award the Key Bridge main span contract by summer 2027?

Which bills will become law in 2026?

Protect College Sports Act

Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions

When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?

Before Feb 1, 2028

Before Aug 1, 2027

NYC population change (July 2025 – July 2027)?

Increase 0.01-0.99%

Decrease 0-0.99%

RFK Jr. out as HHS Secretary?

Before Apr 1, 2027

Before Jul 1, 2027

How many Senate seats will Republicans win in the Midterms?

At least 18

At least 19

Who will leave office first: RFK Jr., Hegseth, or Patel?

Kash Patel

Pete Hegseth

How many times will Trump visit Mar-a-Lago in Oct 2026?

1

0

When will CMS announce the addition of GLP-1 drugs for obesity to Part D?

Before Jan 20, 2029

Before Jan 1, 2028

Will the ban on supersonic flight over land end before 2028?

Kash Patel out as FBI Director?

Before Oct 1, 2027

Before Jul 1, 2027

Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?

Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act?

Before Jan 20, 2029

Before 2027

When will Trump and Mamdani meet?

Before Jan 1, 2027

Before Dec 1, 2026

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