Prediction Markets

Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 1, 2026?

Below 38.5%

38.5%

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

Before Jan 1, 2028

Before Jul 1, 2027

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4)

Above 25

Above 30

Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4)

Above 6

Above 8

Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?

Before Jan 31, 2028

Before Jun 1, 2027

How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (9/27-10/3)

At least 6

At least 7

Which bills will become law in 2026?

Protect College Sports Act

Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions

Will a federal film or TV production tax credit become law?

Trump's approval rating on Oct 2, 2026?

38.5 to 38.7

38.2 to 38.4

Which leaders will leave office in 2026?

Benjamin Netanyahu

Christopher Luxon

Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary?

Before Apr 1, 2027

Before Jul 1, 2027

Will Arkansas's crypto mining ownership ban survive appeal?

Will Maine approve contracts for the northern Maine wind and transmission project?

Traffic through the Suez Canal? (9/28 - 10/4)

Above 280

Above 290

Will Maryland award the Key Bridge main span contract by summer 2027?

Who will Trump pardon?

Barron Trump

Donald Trump

When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?

Before Feb 1, 2028

Before Aug 1, 2027

NYC population change (July 2025 – July 2027)?

Increase 0.01-0.99%

Decrease 0-0.99%

RFK Jr. out as HHS Secretary?

Before Apr 1, 2027

Before Jul 1, 2027

How many Senate seats will Republicans win in the Midterms?

At least 18

At least 19

Which states will Trump visit in 2026?

Louisiana

New Mexico

Who will leave office first: RFK Jr., Hegseth, or Patel?

Kash Patel

Pete Hegseth

When will CMS announce the addition of GLP-1 drugs for obesity to Part D?

Before Jan 20, 2029

Before Jan 1, 2028

Will the ban on supersonic flight over land end before 2028?

Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act?

Before Jan 20, 2029

Before 2027

Will Trump’s name return to the Kennedy Center facade?

Before Jul 1, 2027

Before Jan 1, 2027

Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak?

Before Jan 20, 2029

Before 2027

Kash Patel out as FBI Director?

Before Oct 1, 2027

Before Jul 1, 2027

When will Trump and Mamdani meet?

Before Jan 1, 2027

Before Dec 1, 2026

Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?

When will a member of Trump's Cabinet leave?

Before Jan 2027

Before Dec 2026

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense?

No other person

Joni Ernst

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