Prediction Markets

Best AI at the end of 2026?

Gemini

Claude

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

Before Jan 20, 2029

Before Jan 1, 2028

How many launches will SpaceX have in October?

Above 10

Above 11

Google market share this week

Above 17.3%

Above 18.4%

Where will Waymo operate in 2026?

Detroit, MI

Seattle, WA

Best AI in Oct 2026?

Gemini

Claude

DeepSeek market share this week

Above 27.8%

Above 28.9%

When will OpenAI release Astra 6.1?

Before Dec 31, 2026

Before Nov 13, 2026

Anthropic market share this week

Above 5.4%

Above 6.5%

Will a major meteor strike hit Earth before 2030?

Best AI this week

Gemini

Qwen

Anthropic share of spend on Oct 30, 2026 (Vercel)

Above 32.5%

Above 35.9%

Will the FDA approve retatrutide?

Before Jan 1, 2028

Before Jul 1, 2027

Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

Gemini

Claude

When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?

Before 2027

Before November

OpenAI market share this week

Above 19.2%

Above 20.0%

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?

Above 140

Above 145

Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?

OpenAI

xAI

SpaceX Starship 15th launch?

Before Nov 27, 2026

Before Nov 13, 2026

Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Oct 30, 2026

Above 57.8%

Above 56.1%

Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?

Anthropic

OpenAI

Top AI model this month

gemini-4-argon-high

claude-opus-5.5-high

Next Gemini Pro model release

Before Dec 1, 2026

Before Nov 16, 2026

Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Nov 1, 2026

Above 68.5%

Above 70.2%

AI capability growth this year?

At least 1550 score

At least 1600 score

Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution?

Before Jan 1, 2028

Before Jan 1, 2027

Will SpaceX test its HLS before 2027?

When will OpenAI release a personal AI agent?

Before Jan 1, 2027

Before Dec 1, 2026

Pandemic in 2026?

Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?

Highest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?

At least 60%

At least 65%

Open source token share Oct 26–Nov 1 (OpenRouter)

Above 73.2%

Above 73.9%

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